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Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres
Article . 2007 . Peer-reviewed
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On rainfall seasonality using a hidden semi‐Markov model

Authors: Peter Thomson; John Sansom;

On rainfall seasonality using a hidden semi‐Markov model

Abstract

A hidden semi‐Markov model (HSMM) has previously been used successfully to model breakpoint rainfall data which provide a continuous record of steady rainfall rates and the times of rain rate changes. These data contain more information than the commoner fixed period rain accumulation data. Although the HSMM is a homogeneous model which does not explicitly account for seasonality, it does yield firm state classifications in the case of New Zealand breakpoint data and these were used to explore the nature of seasonality in the breakpoint data. These data and the state classifications were analyzed using simple graphical and numerical procedures. It was found that seasonality resides in the frequency of rainfall events rather than their intensity and that seasons start at varying rather than fixed times of the year and have varying length. Such a seasonal pattern is not well modeled by conventional periodic functions and further developments to the HSMM to include these features are discussed.

  • BIP!
    Impact byBIP!
    citations
    This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    14
    popularity
    This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
    Average
    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    Top 10%
    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
    Average
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Found an issue? Give us feedback
citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
14
Average
Top 10%
Average
bronze