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With or without replacement? Sampling uncertainty in Shepp’s urn scheme

With or without replacement? Sampling uncertainty in Shepp's urn scheme
Authors: Kristoffer J. Glover;

With or without replacement? Sampling uncertainty in Shepp’s urn scheme

Abstract

AbstractWe introduce a variant of Shepp’s classical urn problem in which the optimal stopper does not know whether sampling from the urn is done with or without replacement. By considering the problem’s continuous-time analog, we provide bounds on the value function and, in the case of a balanced urn (with an equal number of each ball type), an explicit solution is found. Surprisingly, the optimal strategy for the balanced urn is the same as in the classical urn problem. However, the expected value upon stopping is lower due to the additional uncertainty present.

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Keywords

Stopping times; optimal stopping problems; gambling theory, sampling, Statistical Finance (q-fin.ST), Probability (math.PR), parameter uncertainty, Quantitative Finance - Statistical Finance, Optimal stopping in statistics, Shepp's urn scheme, Brownian bridges, FOS: Economics and business, Derivative securities (option pricing, hedging, etc.), optimal stopping, FOS: Mathematics, Brownian motion, Mathematics - Probability

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
Green