
arXiv: 1911.11971
AbstractWe introduce a variant of Shepp’s classical urn problem in which the optimal stopper does not know whether sampling from the urn is done with or without replacement. By considering the problem’s continuous-time analog, we provide bounds on the value function and, in the case of a balanced urn (with an equal number of each ball type), an explicit solution is found. Surprisingly, the optimal strategy for the balanced urn is the same as in the classical urn problem. However, the expected value upon stopping is lower due to the additional uncertainty present.
Stopping times; optimal stopping problems; gambling theory, sampling, Statistical Finance (q-fin.ST), Probability (math.PR), parameter uncertainty, Quantitative Finance - Statistical Finance, Optimal stopping in statistics, Shepp's urn scheme, Brownian bridges, FOS: Economics and business, Derivative securities (option pricing, hedging, etc.), optimal stopping, FOS: Mathematics, Brownian motion, Mathematics - Probability
Stopping times; optimal stopping problems; gambling theory, sampling, Statistical Finance (q-fin.ST), Probability (math.PR), parameter uncertainty, Quantitative Finance - Statistical Finance, Optimal stopping in statistics, Shepp's urn scheme, Brownian bridges, FOS: Economics and business, Derivative securities (option pricing, hedging, etc.), optimal stopping, FOS: Mathematics, Brownian motion, Mathematics - Probability
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