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Generalized Efron's biased coin design and its theoretical properties

Authors: Hu, Yanqing;

Generalized Efron's biased coin design and its theoretical properties

Abstract

AbstractIn clinical trials with two treatment arms, Efron's biased coin design, Efron (1971), sequentially assigns a patient to the underrepresented arm with probabilityp> ½. Under this design the proportion of patients in any arm converges to ½, and the convergence rate isn-1, as opposed ton-½under some other popular designs. The generalization of Efron's design toK≥ 2 arms and an unequal target allocation ratio (q1, . . .,qK) can be found in some papers, most of which determine the allocation probabilitiesps in a heuristic way. Nonetheless, it has been noted that by using inappropriateps, the proportion of patients in theKarms never converges to the target ratio. We develop a general theory to answer the question of what allocation probabilities ensure that the realized proportions under a generalized design still converge to the target ratio (q1, . . .,qK) with raten-1.

Keywords

clinical trials, More than two treatments, Markov chain, biased coin design, Markov chains (discrete-time Markov processes on discrete state spaces), Applications of statistics to biology and medical sciences; meta analysis, Applications of Markov chains and discrete-time Markov processes on general state spaces (social mobility, learning theory, industrial processes, etc.), Limit theorems in probability theory, drift conditions, 62P10, unequal allocation, 60F99

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    popularity
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    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
3
Average
Average
Average
Green