Abstract Since free/libre open source software (FLOSS) promotes collaboration and contributions from different parties in software production and innovation processes, it can create a unique opportunity for developing countries, by generating an innovative capability in software technology. To benefit from this opportunity, it is important to understand the strategic factors and future trends that affect the development of an efficient FLOSS economy in developing countries. This paper aims to examine the strategic factors and future trends that are likely to affect the development and deployment of FLOSS in Turkey. Based on the internal and external factors identified through the practice of technological foresight, a SWOT analysis will be carried out to identify the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats for Turkey in creating a competitive software industry that can benefit from the advantages of FLOSS. Accordingly, with regard to the required technical infrastructure, an innovative/competitive business climate, skilled human resources and support for institutional structures, policy suggestions are outlined here that could be usefully implemented by government, industry and universities.