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image/svg+xml Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao Closed Access logo, derived from PLoS Open Access logo. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Closed_Access_logo_transparent.svg Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao Technological Foreca...arrow_drop_down
image/svg+xml Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao Closed Access logo, derived from PLoS Open Access logo. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Closed_Access_logo_transparent.svg Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao
Technological Forecasting and Social Change
Article . 2018 . Peer-reviewed
License: Elsevier TDM
Data sources: Crossref
image/svg+xml Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao Closed Access logo, derived from PLoS Open Access logo. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Closed_Access_logo_transparent.svg Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao
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Article . 2017
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Article . 2017
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A Theory of the General Causes of Long Waves: War, General Purpose Technologies, and Economic Change

Authors: Coccia Mario;

A Theory of the General Causes of Long Waves: War, General Purpose Technologies, and Economic Change

Abstract

A debate exists in literature between the Goldstein's theory that Kondratieff-waves (K-waves) or Long Waves (LWs) are linked to hegemonic wars occurring in the final phase of ascending long cycles and studies that do not support this pattern. However, current theoretical frameworks have trouble explaining the sources of LWs with comprehensive and consistent arguments. This study proposes a theory that LWs are due to structural change of warfare that generates huge demand-side effects and powerful supply-side effects to support the evolution of General Purpose Technologies (GPTs) and clusters of innovation. In particular, the analysis here seems to reveal a sequential historical process that runs from wars performed by great powers, occurring in phases of instability of LWs (peak and/or trough), to GPTs and clusters of innovation in the trough of K-waves, which trigger the upward phase of new K-waves. Overall, then, the theory here can be useful for bringing a new perspective to explain, whenever possible one of the general sources of the evolution of LWs, rooted-in-war, that generates technological and economic change in society.

Country
Italy
Keywords

Economic change, General purpose technologies, Technical change, Long wave, Kondratieff waves, Wars

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    influence
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    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
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Powered by OpenAIRE graph
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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
48
Top 10%
Top 10%
Top 10%
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