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Scientia Iranica
Article . 2011 . Peer-reviewed
License: Elsevier TDM
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Scientia Iranica
Article
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DBLP
Article . 2011
Data sources: DBLP
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An evolution of uncertainty assessment and quantification

Authors: Jane M. Booker; Timothy J. Ross;

An evolution of uncertainty assessment and quantification

Abstract

AbstractUncertainty is generally defined as ‘that which is not precisely known’. This definition permits the identification of different kinds of uncertainty arising from different sources and activities, most of which go unnoticed in analysis. In this paper, the evolution of uncertainty through time begins from a historical perspective and concludes with a new perspective based upon making inferences. The evolution of uncertainty, in terms of analytical progress, begins with assessing probabilities and concludes with models and methods for assessing the ‘total uncertainty’ within an application. Both evolutionary tracks are briefly described in the context of physical science and engineering applications; however, nothing presented precludes application to other fields, e.g. economics, social sciences, medicine and business. As we honor his 90th birthday, Zadeh’s fuzzy sets and logic play a prominent role in both evolutions. Uncertainty assessment involves how to identify, classify, characterize, quantify, and combine uncertainties within an application, with the expressed goal of understanding how to manage uncertainties. Managing uncertainties is important, because uncertainties directly affect decision and policy making. Assessment and quantification of uncertainties are generally defined and outlined. Mathematical developments are not provided and in some cases are still under or in need of development.

Related Organizations
Keywords

Fuzzy sets, Inference, Total uncertainty, Confidence, Uncertainty quantification

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    popularity
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    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
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    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
34
Top 10%
Top 10%
Top 10%
gold