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Sociophysics of intractable conflicts: Three-group dynamics

Sociophysics of intractable conflicts: three-group dynamics
Authors: Kaufman, Miron; Diep, Hung; Kaufman, Sanda; Carlo, Monte;

Sociophysics of intractable conflicts: Three-group dynamics

Abstract

We extend a sociophysics model of two-group conflict dynamics to three groups. The model with attractors and chaos is proposed as a tool for exploring and managing intractable conflicts. It can be used to generate scenarios of trajectories and outcomes. We use mean-field theory for long-range interactions to study the time dependence of the three grousp' mean attitudes. We find that at some intermediate temperatures the group mean attitudes oscillate in time. Independent of initial conditions, trajectories converge overtime to an attractor in the three-dimensional space of mean attitudes. We use Monte Carlo simulations to explore short-range group interactions and find chaotic unpredictable time variation of attitudes at high temperatures. For illustrative purposes we apply the model to the Bosnia and Herze-govina conflict.

Keywords

Physics - Physics and Society, FOS: Physical sciences, mean-field model, Physics and Society (physics.soc-ph), multiplex networks, Monte Carlo simulations, Stochastic games, stochastic differential games, [PHYS.COND.CM-SM] Physics [physics]/Condensed Matter [cond-mat]/Statistical Mechanics [cond-mat.stat-mech], three-group dynamics, Dynamical systems in optimization and economics, Models of societies, social and urban evolution, sociophysics

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    popularity
    This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 10%
    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    Top 10%
    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 10%
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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
17
Top 10%
Top 10%
Top 10%
Green
bronze