Abstract The gateway belief model posits that perceptions of scientific agreement play a causal role in shaping beliefs about the existence of anthropogenic climate change. However, experimental support for the model is mixed. The current study takes a longitudinal approach, examining the causal relationships between perceived consensus and beliefs. Perceptions of scientific consensus and personal beliefs about climate change were collected over a five-month period in a student sample (N = 356). Cross-lagged panel analysis revealed that perceived scientific consensus did not prospectively predict personal agreement with the reality of climate change, thus the current study did not find support for the gateway belief model. However, the inverse pathway was significant for those with liberal voting intentions: personal beliefs about the reality of anthropogenic climate change prospectively predicted subsequent estimates of consensus. The results suggest that individuals’ perceptions of a consensus among scientists do not have a strong influence on their personal beliefs about climate change.