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Journal of Econometrics
Article . 2015 . Peer-reviewed
License: Elsevier TDM
Data sources: Crossref
SSRN Electronic Journal
Article . 2013 . Peer-reviewed
Data sources: Crossref
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Distribution theory of the least squares averaging estimator

Authors: Liu, Chu-An;

Distribution theory of the least squares averaging estimator

Abstract

This paper derives the limiting distributions of least squares averaging estimators for linear regression models in a local asymptotic framework. We show that the averaging estimators with fixed weights are asymptotically normal and then develop a plug-in averaging estimator that minimizes the sample analog of the asymptotic mean squared error. We investigate the focused information criterion (Claeskens and Hjort, 2003), the plug-in averaging estimator, the Mallows model averaging estimator (Hansen, 2007), and the jackknife model averaging estimator (Hansen and Racine, 2012). We find that the asymptotic distributions of averaging estimators with data-dependent weights are nonstandard and cannot be approximated by simulation. To address this issue, we propose a simple procedure to construct valid confidence intervals with improved coverage probability. Monte Carlo simulations show that the plug-in averaging estimator generally has smaller expected squared error than other existing model averaging methods, and the coverage probability of proposed confidence intervals achieves the nominal level. As an empirical illustration, the proposed methodology is applied to cross-country growth regressions.

Keywords

Validation, C52 - Model Evaluation, Local asymptotic theory, Model averaging, Model selection, Plug-in estimators., and Selection, C51 - Model Construction and Estimation, jel: jel:C52, jel: jel:C51

  • BIP!
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    citations
    This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    98
    popularity
    This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 1%
    influence
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    Top 10%
    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 10%
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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
98
Top 1%
Top 10%
Top 10%
bronze