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International Journal of Forecasting
Article . 2025 . Peer-reviewed
License: CC BY
Data sources: Crossref
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https://dx.doi.org/10.48550/ar...
Article . 2022
License: arXiv Non-Exclusive Distribution
Data sources: Datacite
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Forecasting macroeconomic data with Bayesian VARs: Sparse or dense? It depends!

Authors: Luis Gruber; Gregor Kastner;

Forecasting macroeconomic data with Bayesian VARs: Sparse or dense? It depends!

Abstract

Vector autogressions (VARs) are widely applied when it comes to modeling and forecasting macroeconomic variables. In high dimensions, however, they are prone to overfitting. Bayesian methods, more concretely shrinkage priors, have shown to be successful in improving prediction performance. In the present paper, we introduce the semi-global framework, in which we replace the traditional global shrinkage parameter with group-specific shrinkage parameters. We show how this framework can be applied to various shrinkage priors, such as global-local priors and stochastic search variable selection priors. We demonstrate the virtues of the proposed framework in an extensive simulation study and in an empirical application forecasting data of the US economy. Further, we shed more light on the ongoing ``Illusion of Sparsity'' debate, finding that forecasting performances under sparse/dense priors vary across evaluated economic variables and across time frames. Dynamic model averaging, however, can combine the merits of both worlds.

Keywords

Methodology (stat.ME), FOS: Economics and business, FOS: Computer and information sciences, Econometrics (econ.EM), Applications (stat.AP), Statistics - Applications, Statistics - Methodology, Economics - Econometrics

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    popularity
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    influence
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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
3
Top 10%
Average
Average
Green
hybrid