
In this paper we explore relaxations of (Williams) coherent and convex conditional previsions that form the families of $n$-coherent and $n$-convex conditional previsions, at the varying of $n$. We investigate which such previsions are the most general one may reasonably consider, suggesting (centered) $2$-convex or, if positive homogeneity and conjugacy is needed, $2$-coherent lower previsions. Basic properties of these previsions are studied. In particular, we prove that they satisfy the Generalized Bayes Rule and always have a $2$-convex or, respectively, $2$-coherent natural extension. The role of these extensions is analogous to that of the natural extension for coherent lower previsions. On the contrary, $n$-convex and $n$-coherent previsions with $n\geq 3$ either are convex or coherent themselves or have no extension of the same type on large enough sets. Among the uncertainty concepts that can be modelled by $2$-convexity, we discuss generalizations of capacities and niveloids to a conditional framework and show that the well-known risk measure Value-at-Risk only guarantees to be centered $2$-convex. In the final part, we determine the rationality requirements of $2$-convexity and $2$-coherence from a desirability perspective, emphasising how they weaken those of (Williams) coherence.
This is the authors' version of a work that was accepted for publication in the International Journal of Approximate Reasoning, vol. 77, October 2016, pages 66-86, doi:10.1016/j.ijar.2016.06.003, http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0888613X16300792
2-Convex prevision, 2-Coherent prevision, 2-coherent previsions, Probability (math.PR), Williams coherence; 2-Coherent previsions; 2-Convex previsions; Generalised Bayes Rule, generalised Bayes rule, 68T37, 60A86, 2-convex previsions, Fuzzy probability, Risk theory, insurance, Generalised Bayes Rule, value-at-risk, Empirical decision procedures; empirical Bayes procedures, FOS: Mathematics, Williams coherence, Mathematics - Probability, Statistical methods; risk measures
2-Convex prevision, 2-Coherent prevision, 2-coherent previsions, Probability (math.PR), Williams coherence; 2-Coherent previsions; 2-Convex previsions; Generalised Bayes Rule, generalised Bayes rule, 68T37, 60A86, 2-convex previsions, Fuzzy probability, Risk theory, insurance, Generalised Bayes Rule, value-at-risk, Empirical decision procedures; empirical Bayes procedures, FOS: Mathematics, Williams coherence, Mathematics - Probability, Statistical methods; risk measures
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