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International Journal of Approximate Reasoning
Article . 2016 . Peer-reviewed
License: Elsevier Non-Commercial
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Article . 2016
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https://dx.doi.org/10.48550/ar...
Article . 2016
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2-Coherent and 2-convex conditional lower previsions

2-coherent and 2-convex conditional lower previsions
Authors: PELESSONI, RENATO; VICIG, PAOLO;

2-Coherent and 2-convex conditional lower previsions

Abstract

In this paper we explore relaxations of (Williams) coherent and convex conditional previsions that form the families of $n$-coherent and $n$-convex conditional previsions, at the varying of $n$. We investigate which such previsions are the most general one may reasonably consider, suggesting (centered) $2$-convex or, if positive homogeneity and conjugacy is needed, $2$-coherent lower previsions. Basic properties of these previsions are studied. In particular, we prove that they satisfy the Generalized Bayes Rule and always have a $2$-convex or, respectively, $2$-coherent natural extension. The role of these extensions is analogous to that of the natural extension for coherent lower previsions. On the contrary, $n$-convex and $n$-coherent previsions with $n\geq 3$ either are convex or coherent themselves or have no extension of the same type on large enough sets. Among the uncertainty concepts that can be modelled by $2$-convexity, we discuss generalizations of capacities and niveloids to a conditional framework and show that the well-known risk measure Value-at-Risk only guarantees to be centered $2$-convex. In the final part, we determine the rationality requirements of $2$-convexity and $2$-coherence from a desirability perspective, emphasising how they weaken those of (Williams) coherence.

This is the authors' version of a work that was accepted for publication in the International Journal of Approximate Reasoning, vol. 77, October 2016, pages 66-86, doi:10.1016/j.ijar.2016.06.003, http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0888613X16300792

Country
Italy
Keywords

2-Convex prevision, 2-Coherent prevision, 2-coherent previsions, Probability (math.PR), Williams coherence; 2-Coherent previsions; 2-Convex previsions; Generalised Bayes Rule, generalised Bayes rule, 68T37, 60A86, 2-convex previsions, Fuzzy probability, Risk theory, insurance, Generalised Bayes Rule, value-at-risk, Empirical decision procedures; empirical Bayes procedures, FOS: Mathematics, Williams coherence, Mathematics - Probability, Statistical methods; risk measures

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
14
Top 10%
Top 10%
Top 10%
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bronze