
Abstract Fisheries can be managed based on surplus production models when only catch and effort data are available. However, reported catch and effort may not equal the true values. We studied the effects of jointly underestimated catch and effort on surplus production model parameter estimates (e.g., MSY, B msy and F msy ) as well as estimates of key ratios (e.g., F/F msy ). We used ASPIC to examine various scenarios of underreporting for three example fisheries, North Atlantic swordfish, northern pike in Minnesota and queen conch in the Turks and Caicos Islands. With constant underestimation of catch and effort throughout time, MSY, B msy and B next are all underestimated by the same percentage, while F last and the ratios, F/F msy and B/B msy , are not affected. As a result, harvest regulations can be set based on fishing mortality and the ratios. That is, when one thinks the harvest is MSY with F = F msy , one is achieving MSY and F msy even though the catch is actually larger than it is thought to be. However, increasing or decreasing trends in underreporting of catch and effort over time lead to errors in the parameter and ratio estimates whose direction is case-specific and whose magnitude can be high or low. Each fishery model responded differently to the simulated scenarios, which may be a result of different exploitation histories or the quality of the fit of the production model to the data. The wide range of outcomes observed may be due to the fact that underestimation of catch and effort can lead to a gain or reduction in data contrast. Simulations of a variety of possible scenarios similar to the methods in this study should be conducted if catch and effort are believed to be underestimated to determine how the surplus production model responds.
| selected citations These citations are derived from selected sources. This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically). | 18 | |
| popularity This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network. | Top 10% | |
| influence This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically). | Top 10% | |
| impulse This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network. | Average |
