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AbstractScenario discovery is a novel model-based approach to scenario development in the presence of deep uncertainty. Scenario discovery frequently relies on the Patient Rule Induction Method (PRIM). PRIM identifies regions in the model input space that are highly predictive of producing model outcomes that are of interest. To identify these, PRIM uses a lenient hill climbing optimization procedure. PRIM struggles when confronted with cases where the uncertain factors are a mix of data types, and can be used only for binary classifications. We compare two more lenient objective functions which both address the first problem, and an alternative objective function using Gini impurity which addresses the second problem. We assess the efficacy of the modification using previously published cases. Both modifications are effective. The more lenient objective functions produce better descriptions of the data, while the Gini impurity objective function allows PRIM to be used when handling multinomial classified data.
Scenario discovery, Ecological Modelling, Deep uncertainty, Environmental Science(all), CWTS 0.75 <= JFIS < 2.00, Robust decision making
Scenario discovery, Ecological Modelling, Deep uncertainty, Environmental Science(all), CWTS 0.75 <= JFIS < 2.00, Robust decision making
| selected citations These citations are derived from selected sources. This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically). | 79 | |
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| influence This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically). | Top 10% | |
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