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CNR ExploRA
Article . 2013
Data sources: CNR ExploRA
Ecological Modelling
Article . 2013 . Peer-reviewed
Data sources: Crossref
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Metapopulation modelling and area-wide pest management strategies evaluation. An application to the Pine processionary moth

Authors: Gilioli, Gianni; Bodini, Antonella; Baumgärtner, Johann;

Metapopulation modelling and area-wide pest management strategies evaluation. An application to the Pine processionary moth

Abstract

Forecasting pest population abundance is a time and resource consuming task, and in particular for area-wide pest management is complicated by demographic and environmental stochasticity. These factors make difficult the development of quantitative tools to design and evaluate different management strategies performances by taking into account various form of variability and uncertainty. Pest management could benefit from methods supporting decision making based on models ease of development under scarce data and high uncertainty. Host plants for many agricultural and forest pests are often patchily distributed, therefore population dynamics can be suitably described in terms of metapopulations. Despite the fact that metapopulation models were originally proposed for pests, they remain a widely used tool in conservation biology but receive little attention in large scale pest management.The aim of this paper is to propose a framework allowing the ranking of the efficacy of area-wide pest control strategies, taking into account population spatial distribution in discrete patches. The Kullback-Leibler divergence, well known in Information Theory, Probability and Statistics, is used to measure how far the state of the metapopulation as predicted by a spatially explicit metapopulation model is from a suitable reference state.The method is applied to compare the efficacy of different types of predefined control strategies of the Pine processionary moth (Traumatocampa pityocampa (Den. and Schiff)). The analysis of a dataset on metapopulation dynamics of this moth from a fragmented Mediterranean pine forest allows to derive some rules of thumb for the rational allocation of control effort, in terms of spatial and temporal distribution of the interventions.

Country
Italy
Keywords

Kullback-Leibler divergence, Spatially explicit metapopulation model, Management strategies ranking, Decision making; Kullback-Leibler divergence; Management strategies ranking; Spatial autocorrelation; Spatially explicit metapopulation model; Traumatocampa pityocampa; Ecological Modeling, Decision making, Spatial autocorrelation, Traumatocampa pityocampa

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
8
Average
Average
Top 10%
Green
bronze