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Ecological Modelling
Article . 2009 . Peer-reviewed
License: Elsevier TDM
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Article . 2009
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Article . 2009
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An epidemiological model of East Coast Fever in African livestock

Authors: GILIOLI G; GROPPI, Maria; VESPERONI M. P; BAUMGÄRTNER J; GUTIERREZ A. P.;

An epidemiological model of East Coast Fever in African livestock

Abstract

An epidemiological model of the dynamics of East Coast Fever (ECF) in East Africa caused by the protozoan parasite Theileria parva and transmitted by the brown-ear tick Rhipicephalus appendiculatus was developed. In the model, ticks are assigned to either on-host or off-host categories both of which differ in their capacity to receive and transmit the disease. Cattle are assigned to categories of susceptible, infected and infectious as well as recovered animals having immunity to the disease. The parameters of the model were estimated from data reported in the literature. A mathematical analysis of the ECF/tick/cattle model with and without disease was conducted. Depending on the ratio between fecundity and mortality rates in cattle and in the absence of disease, different scenarios emerge including extinction of ticks, coexistence of ticks and cattle and total extinction of ticks and cattle. Furthermore, the analysis of the model with the disease yielded threshold conditions for the existence and the persistence of stable coexistence equilibria for the epidemiological system that may lead to enzootic stability. The model was used to identify critical aspects of the dynamics required to develop management strategies: (i) tick control in areas where the disease is absent, (ii) threshold-based tick and disease control, and (iii) conditions permitting the establishment of enzootic stability of the ECF/tick/cattle system. The analysis also identifies critical areas requiring further field investigation, sets the basis for developing a realistic model for field implementation, and provides a tool for project development and evaluation in the context of international research.

Country
Italy
Keywords

Theileria parva; Rhipicephalus appendiculatus; cattle; disease transmission model; lumped-parameter model; integrated disease control; adaptive management

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    16
    popularity
    This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 10%
    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
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    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
    Average
Powered by OpenAIRE graph
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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
16
Top 10%
Top 10%
Average
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