
Statistical analysis of max-stable processes used to model spatial extremes has been limited by the difficulty in calculating the joint likelihood function. This precludes all standard likelihood-based approaches, including Bayesian approaches. In this paper we present a Bayesian approach through the use of approximate Bayesian computing. This circumvents the need for a joint likelihood function by instead relying on simulations from the (unavailable) likelihood. This method is compared with an alternative approach based on the composite likelihood. We demonstrate that approximate Bayesian computing can result in a lower mean square error than the composite likelihood approach when estimating the spatial dependence of extremes, though at an appreciably higher computational cost. We also illustrate the performance of the method with an application to US temperature data to estimate the risk of crop loss due to an unlikely freeze event.
FOS: Computer and information sciences, approximate Bayesian computing, numerical examples, Computational methods for problems pertaining to geophysics, Computational problems in statistics, composite likelihood, US temperature data, unlikely freeze event, Meteorology and atmospheric physics, max-stable process, mean square error, Statistics - Computation, spatial extremes, Methodology (stat.ME), Data analysis (statistics), Bayesian problems; characterization of Bayes procedures, Applications of statistics to environmental and related topics, extremal coefficient, Statistics - Methodology, Computation (stat.CO), likelihood-free
FOS: Computer and information sciences, approximate Bayesian computing, numerical examples, Computational methods for problems pertaining to geophysics, Computational problems in statistics, composite likelihood, US temperature data, unlikely freeze event, Meteorology and atmospheric physics, max-stable process, mean square error, Statistics - Computation, spatial extremes, Methodology (stat.ME), Data analysis (statistics), Bayesian problems; characterization of Bayes procedures, Applications of statistics to environmental and related topics, extremal coefficient, Statistics - Methodology, Computation (stat.CO), likelihood-free
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