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Computational Statistics & Data Analysis
Article . 2012 . Peer-reviewed
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https://dx.doi.org/10.48550/ar...
Article . 2011
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Article . 2012
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Approximate Bayesian computing for spatial extremes

Authors: Robert J. Erhardt; Richard L. Smith;

Approximate Bayesian computing for spatial extremes

Abstract

Statistical analysis of max-stable processes used to model spatial extremes has been limited by the difficulty in calculating the joint likelihood function. This precludes all standard likelihood-based approaches, including Bayesian approaches. In this paper we present a Bayesian approach through the use of approximate Bayesian computing. This circumvents the need for a joint likelihood function by instead relying on simulations from the (unavailable) likelihood. This method is compared with an alternative approach based on the composite likelihood. We demonstrate that approximate Bayesian computing can result in a lower mean square error than the composite likelihood approach when estimating the spatial dependence of extremes, though at an appreciably higher computational cost. We also illustrate the performance of the method with an application to US temperature data to estimate the risk of crop loss due to an unlikely freeze event.

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Keywords

FOS: Computer and information sciences, approximate Bayesian computing, numerical examples, Computational methods for problems pertaining to geophysics, Computational problems in statistics, composite likelihood, US temperature data, unlikely freeze event, Meteorology and atmospheric physics, max-stable process, mean square error, Statistics - Computation, spatial extremes, Methodology (stat.ME), Data analysis (statistics), Bayesian problems; characterization of Bayes procedures, Applications of statistics to environmental and related topics, extremal coefficient, Statistics - Methodology, Computation (stat.CO), likelihood-free

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    popularity
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    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
19
Top 10%
Top 10%
Top 10%
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bronze
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