
arXiv: 1803.02525
handle: 11577/3332070
State-space models are used in a wide range of time series analysis formulations. Kalman filtering and smoothing are work-horse algorithms in these settings. While classic algorithms assume Gaussian errors to simplify estimation, recent advances use a broader range of optimization formulations to allow outlier-robust estimation, as well as constraints to capture prior information. Here we develop methods on state-space models where either innovations or error covariances may be singular. These models frequently arise in navigation (e.g. for `colored noise' models or deterministic integrals) and are ubiquitous in auto-correlated time series models such as ARMA. We reformulate all state-space models (singular as well as nonsinguar) as constrained convex optimization problems, and develop an efficient algorithm for this reformulation. The convergence rate is {\it locally linear}, with constants that do not depend on the conditioning of the problem. Numerical comparisons show that the new approach outperforms competing approaches for {\it nonsingular} models, including state of the art interior point (IP) methods. IP methods converge at superlinear rates; we expect them to dominate. However, the steep rate of the proposed approach (independent of problem conditioning) combined with cheap iterations wins against IP in a run-time comparison. We therefore suggest that the proposed approach be the {\it default choice} for estimating state space models outside of the Gaussian context, regardless of whether the error covariances are singular or not.
11 pages, 4 figures
FOS: Computer and information sciences, singular state-space models, Data smoothing in stochastic control theory, Machine Learning (stat.ML), 62F35, 65K10, 49M15, Filtering in stochastic control theory, Kalman filtering and smoothing, Time-scale analysis and singular perturbations in control/observation systems, Statistics - Machine Learning, Optimization and Control (math.OC), time series analysis, FOS: Mathematics, Sensitivity (robustness), Mathematics - Optimization and Control
FOS: Computer and information sciences, singular state-space models, Data smoothing in stochastic control theory, Machine Learning (stat.ML), 62F35, 65K10, 49M15, Filtering in stochastic control theory, Kalman filtering and smoothing, Time-scale analysis and singular perturbations in control/observation systems, Statistics - Machine Learning, Optimization and Control (math.OC), time series analysis, FOS: Mathematics, Sensitivity (robustness), Mathematics - Optimization and Control
| selected citations These citations are derived from selected sources. This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically). | 7 | |
| popularity This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network. | Top 10% | |
| influence This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically). | Top 10% | |
| impulse This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network. | Top 10% |
