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Trabajos de Estadistica y de Investigacion Operativa
Article . 1981 . Peer-reviewed
License: Springer TDM
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Criterios de seleccion de modelos ARIMA

Authors: Daniel Peña Sánchez de Rivera; Gonzalo Arnáiz Tovar;

Criterios de seleccion de modelos ARIMA

Abstract

Este trabajo compara la eficiencia de algunos contrastes diagnosticos para discriminar entre modelos ARIMA, y discute la utilizacion en este contexto del criterio de Informacion de Akaike (MAIC). Hemos demostrado que el MAIC equivale a un contraste F para probar si la reduccion de varianza aportada por la introduccion de nuevos parametros es significativa. El nivel critico de este contraste es variable en funcion del numero incremental de parametros introducidos. Los resultados teoricos se ilustran con un experimento de simulacion. La conclusion principal respecto a los contrastes diagnosticos evaluados es que la eficacia del estadistico Q de Box-Pierce aumenta al utilizarlo conjuntamente con un contraste de rachas sobre los signos de los coeficientes de autocorrelacion simple. El contraste para la normalidad de Kolmogorov-Smirnov, aplicado a la distribucion de los residuos, parece ser de escasa utilidad para detectar errores en la estructura de los modelos. Finalmente, discutimos los problemas de utilizar un modelo automatico de seleccion y presentamos, mediante casos publicados en la literatura especializada, los riesgos asociados a procedimientos automaticos de construccion de modelos

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
bronze