Progress is reported in relating upstream water management and freshwater flow to Florida Bay to a valuable commercial fishery for pink shrimp (Farfantepenaeus duorarum), which has major nursery grounds in Florida Bay. Changes in freshwater inflow are expected to affect salinity patterns in the bay, so the effect of salinity and temperature on the growth, survival, and subsequent recruitment and harvest of this ecologically and economically important species was examined with laboratory experiments and a simulation model. Experiments were conducted to determine the response of juvenile growth and survival to temperature (15°C to 33°C) and salinity (2‰ to 55‰), and results were used to refine an existing model. Results of these experiments indicated that juvenile pink shrimp have a broad salinity tolerance range at their optimal temperature, but the salinity tolerance range narrows with distance from the optimal temperature range, 20–30°C. Acclimation improved survival at extreme high salinity (55‰), but not at extremely low salinity (i.e., 5‰, 10‰). Growth rate increases with temperature until tolerance is exceeded beyond about 35°C. Growth is optimal in the mid-range of salinity (30‰) and decreases as salinity increases or decreases. Potential recruitment and harvests from regions of Florida bay were simulated based on local observed daily temperature and salinity. The simulations predict that potential harvests might differ among years, seasons, and regions of the bay solely on the basis of observed temperature and salinity. Regional differences in other characteristics, such as seagrass cover and tidal transport, may magnify regional differences in potential harvests. The model predicts higher catch rates in the September–December fishery, originating from the April and July settlement cohorts, than in the January–June fishery, originating from the October and January settlement cohorts. The observed density of juveniles in western Florida Bay during the same years simulated by the model was greater in the fall than the spring, supporting modeling results. The observed catch rate in the fishery, a rough index of abundance, was higher in the January–June fishery than the July–December fishery in most of the biological years from 1989–1990 through 1997–1998, contrary to modeling results and observed juvenile density in western Florida Bay.