A thermodynamic model of the equilibria existing between the slag and the weld metal during submerged arc welding is presented. As formulated, the model applies only to fused neutral fluxes containing less than 20 pct CaF2, however some results indicate that the model may be useful in more general cases as well. The model is shown to be capable of predicting the gain or loss of both Mn and Si over a wide range of baseplate, electrode and flux compositions. At large deviations from the predicted equilibrium, the experimental results indicate considerable variability in the amount of Mn or Si transferred between the slag and metal phases, while closer to the calculated equilibrium, the extent of metal transfer becomes more predictable. The variability in metal transfer rate at large deviations from equilibrium may be explained by variations between the bulk and the surface concentrations of Mn and Si in both metal and slag phases.