For numerous planning problems in industrial but also in private management the expectation of future energy prices remains a crucial parameter. On the basis of a comprehensive demand/supply model for the world oil market, it is argued, that future oil prices are expected to remain volatile. Reasons for further oscillations are the recent price cut, a supply interruption but also economic incentives for an export cartel. In particular the last point provides a rational explanation of the historical evolution and contrasts the smooth paths derived to date to project future OPEC policies.