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Journal of Philosophical Logic
Article . 1983 . Peer-reviewed
License: Springer TDM
Data sources: Crossref
image/svg+xml Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao Closed Access logo, derived from PLoS Open Access logo. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Closed_Access_logo_transparent.svg Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao
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Article
Data sources: zbMATH Open
DBLP
Article . 1983
Data sources: DBLP
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Shafer on conditional probability

Authors: Bas C. van Fraassen;

Shafer on conditional probability

Abstract

In this short discussion note of \textit{G. Shafer's} paper (see the foregoing review; Zbl 0539.60004) the present author shows that some kind of paradox may be derived when one of Shafer's assumptions concerning the agent's beliefs is given up. The issue is whether someone can ever believe that he will fully believe (or ''take as evidence'') a proposition that is actually false. Doxastic logic tells us that whoever fully believes that p ipso facto believes that this belief is not mistaken, thus - with respect to someone's present beliefs - the believer himself cannot think it possible that he is mistaken. On the other hand, we all know that humans are not infallible; thus we should perhaps reasonably assume that in the future we will fully believe some proposition p which is (or will turn out) actually (to be) false. The author shows that if indeed the agent assigns a positive probability to his future becoming sure of some false proposition E, then a Dutch book may be construed against him.

Related Organizations
Keywords

subjective probability, Philosophical and critical aspects of logic and foundations, Axioms; other general questions in probability, rule of conditioning

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
1
Average
Average
Average
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