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Stacking for Probabilistic Short-Term Load Forecasting

Authors: Grzegorz Dudek;

Stacking for Probabilistic Short-Term Load Forecasting

Abstract

In this study, we delve into the realm of meta-learning to combine point base forecasts for probabilistic short-term electricity demand forecasting. Our approach encompasses the utilization of quantile linear regression, quantile regression forest, and post-processing techniques involving residual simulation to generate quantile forecasts. Furthermore, we introduce both global and local variants of meta-learning. In the local-learning mode, the meta-model is trained using patterns most similar to the query pattern.Through extensive experimental studies across 35 forecasting scenarios and employing 16 base forecasting models, our findings underscored the superiority of quantile regression forest over its competitors

International Conference on Computational Science, ICCS'24

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Keywords

FOS: Computer and information sciences, Computer Science - Machine Learning, Artificial Intelligence (cs.AI), Computer Science - Artificial Intelligence, Machine Learning (cs.LG)

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    popularity
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    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
4
Top 10%
Average
Top 10%
Green