AbstractProcess mining is a scientific discipline that analyzes event data, often collected in databases called event logs. Recently, uncertain event logs have become of interest, which contain non-deterministic and stochastic event attributes that may represent many possible real-life scenarios. In this paper, we present a method to reliably estimate the probability of each of such scenarios, allowing their analysis. Experiments show that the probabilities calculated with our method closely match the true chances of occurrence of specific outcomes, enabling more trustworthy analyses on uncertain data.