Powered by OpenAIRE graph
Found an issue? Give us feedback
https://doi.org/10.1...arrow_drop_down
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-...
Part of book or chapter of book . 2008 . Peer-reviewed
Data sources: Crossref
https://dx.doi.org/10.7916/d8-...
Other literature type . 2008
Data sources: Datacite
versions View all 2 versions
addClaim

This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.

You have already added 0 works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.

Statistical Modelling

Authors: Mason, Simon J.; Baddour, Omar;
Abstract

Statistical models provide an alternative approach to using dynamical models in seasonal climate forecasting. In statistical models relationships between one set of data, the predictors, and a second set, the predictands, are sought. Common predictands include seasonal mean temperatures and accumulated precipitation, and are typically predicted using antecedent sea surface temperatures primarily within the tropical oceans. Predictions are made on the assumption that historically observed relationships are expected to apply in the future. There are many conditions for such an assumption to be valid, including the need for high-quality datasets to ensure that the historical relationships are robustly measured, and the need for relationships to have a sound theoretical basis. Because of the possibility of identifying spurious relationships between the predictors and the predictands, the statistical model should be tested carefully on independent data. Most statistical models are based on linear regression, which provides a “best guess” forecast under the assumption that a given change in the value of a predictor results in a constant change in the expected value of the predictand regardless of the value of the predictor. Modifications to the linear model can be made or alternative statistical procedures used when there is good reason to expect a relationship to be nonlinear. However, other weaknesses of linear regression may also require these alternatives to be considered seriously. The primary problems with linear regression are multiplicity, multicolinearity, and non-normality of the predictands. Multiplicity refers to the effects of having a large number of candidate predictors: the danger of finding a spurious relationship increases. Multicolinearity arises when more than one predictor is used in the model and there are strong relationships between the predictors which can result in large errors in calculating the parameters of the model. Finally, a linear regression model may not be adequately constructed if the data being predicted have a strongly skewed or otherwise non-Gaussian distribution; seasonally accumulated precipitation often exhibits such problems. Alternative forms of linear and non-linear statistical models can be applied to address such distributional problems.

Related Organizations
Keywords

Climatic changes--Statistical methods, Climatic changes--Models, Climatic changes--Forecasting

  • BIP!
    Impact byBIP!
    citations
    This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    22
    popularity
    This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 10%
    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    Top 10%
    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
    Average
Powered by OpenAIRE graph
Found an issue? Give us feedback
citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
22
Top 10%
Top 10%
Average
Upload OA version
Are you the author? Do you have the OA version of this publication?