Pink shrimp (Farfantepenaeus duorarum) is an important commercial species in the eastern Gulf of Mexico, with annual landings between 2300 and 4500 metric tonnes during the past decade. The adults are exploited by a trawl fishery in the Dry Tortugas region, while juveniles inhabit Florida Bay. The onshore–offshore ontogenetic migrations create many opportunities for disruption of cohorts. Potential linkage between the abundance of juveniles in nursery areas and of recruits to the fishery was examined by relating recruitment success to juvenile density spanning 123 months of data. The fitted recruitment success model predicts well the general trend in the ratio of recruitment to juvenile density. However, the full magnitude of the expected trends is not fully explained by the model, and environmental variables on recruitment may have a sizeable effect. However, the density dependence of recruitment to the fishery on juvenile density is significant. 2001 International Council for the Exploration of the Sea