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On confidence intervals centred on bootstrap smoothed estimators

Authors: Paul Kabaila; Christeen Wijethunga;

On confidence intervals centred on bootstrap smoothed estimators

Abstract

Bootstrap smoothed (bagged) estimators have been proposed as an improvement on estimators found after preliminary data‐based model selection. Efron derived a widely applicable formula for a delta method approximation to the standard deviation of the bootstrap smoothed estimator. He also considered a confidence interval centred on the bootstrap smoothed estimator, with width proportional to the estimate of this standard deviation. Recently, Kabaila and Wijethunga assessed the performance of this confidence interval in the scenario of two nested linear regression models, the full model and the simpler model, for the case of known error variance and preliminary model selection using a hypothesis test. They found that the performance of this confidence interval was not substantially better than the usual confidence interval based on the full model, with the same minimum coverage. We extend this assessment to the case of unknown error variance by deriving a computationally convenient exact formula for the ideal (i.e., in the limit as the number of bootstrap replications diverges to infinity) delta method approximation to the standard deviation of the bootstrap smoothed estimator. Our results show that, unlike the known error variance case, there are circumstances in which this confidence interval has attractive properties.

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Keywords

FOS: Computer and information sciences, Parametric tolerance and confidence regions, expected length, model selection, Bootstrap, jackknife and other resampling methods, coverage probability, Statistics, bagging, preliminary model selection, bootstrap smoothed estimator, Methodology (stat.ME), Statistical ranking and selection procedures, confidence interval, parametric bootstrap, confidence intervals, Statistics - Methodology

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    popularity
    This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 10%
    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
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    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
6
Top 10%
Average
Average
Green
gold