
doi: 10.1002/sim.8723
pmid: 32929756
Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) and predictiveness curves are graphical tools to study the discriminative and predictive power of a continuous‐valued marker in a binary outcome. In this paper, a copula‐based construction of the joint density of the marker and the outcome is developed for plotting and analyzing both curves. The methodology only requires a copula function, the marginal distribution of the marker, and the prevalence rate for the model to be characterized. The adoption of the Gaussian copula and the customization of the margin for the marker are proposed for such characterization. The computation of both curves is numerically more feasible than methods that attempt to obtain one curve in terms of the other. Estimation is carried out using maximum likelihood and resampling‐based methods. Randomized quantile residuals from each conditional distribution are employed for both assessing the adequacy of the model and identifying outliers. The performance of the estimators of both curves and their underlying quantities is evaluated in simulation studies that assume different dependence structures and sample sizes. The methods are illustrated with an analysis of the level of progesterone receptor gene expression for the diagnosis and prediction of estrogen receptor‐positive breast cancer.
mixture model, AUC, Models, Statistical, convexity, Normal Distribution, bimodal distribution, Applications of statistics to biology and medical sciences; meta analysis, risk prediction, ROC Curve, Humans, Computer Simulation, non-Gaussian marker, skewed normal distribution, Biomarkers
mixture model, AUC, Models, Statistical, convexity, Normal Distribution, bimodal distribution, Applications of statistics to biology and medical sciences; meta analysis, risk prediction, ROC Curve, Humans, Computer Simulation, non-Gaussian marker, skewed normal distribution, Biomarkers
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