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Statistics in Medicine
Article . 2017 . Peer-reviewed
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Article . 2017
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Asymptotic distribution of ∆AUC, NRIs, and IDI based on theory of U‐statistics

Asymptotic distribution of \(\Delta\)AUC, NRIs, and IDI based on theory of U-statistics
Authors: Olga V. Demler; Michael J. Pencina; Nancy R. Cook; Ralph B. D'Agostino;

Asymptotic distribution of ∆AUC, NRIs, and IDI based on theory of U‐statistics

Abstract

The change in area under the curve (∆AUC), the integrated discrimination improvement (IDI), and net reclassification index (NRI) are commonly used measures of risk prediction model performance. Some authors have reported good validity of associated methods of estimating their standard errors (SE) and construction of confidence intervals, whereas others have questioned their performance. To address these issues, we unite the ∆AUC, IDI, and three versions of the NRI under the umbrella of the U‐statistics family. We rigorously show that the asymptotic behavior of ∆AUC, NRIs, and IDI fits the asymptotic distribution theory developed for U‐statistics. We prove that the ∆AUC, NRIs, and IDI are asymptotically normal, unless they compare nested models under the null hypothesis. In the latter case, asymptotic normality and existing SE estimates cannot be applied to ∆AUC, NRIs, or IDI. In the former case, SE formulas proposed in the literature are equivalent to SE formulas obtained from U‐statistics theory if we ignore adjustment for estimated parameters. We use Sukhatme–Randles–deWet condition to determine when adjustment for estimated parameters is necessary. We show that adjustment is not necessary for SEs of the ∆AUC and two versions of the NRI when added predictor variables are significant and normally distributed. The SEs of the IDI and three‐category NRI should always be adjusted for estimated parameters. These results allow us to define when existing formulas for SE estimates can be used and when resampling methods such as the bootstrap should be used instead when comparing nested models. We also use the U‐statistic theory to develop a new SE estimate of ∆AUC. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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Keywords

IDI, AUC, Biometry, Models, Statistical, Reproducibility of Results, Risk Assessment, Statistics, Nonparametric, Applications of statistics to biology and medical sciences; meta analysis, risk prediction, Logistic Models, Bias, ROC Curve, Area Under Curve, Linear Models, NRI, Humans, Computer Simulation, U-statistics

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
25
Top 10%
Top 10%
Top 10%
bronze
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