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Statistics in Medicine
Article . 2024 . Peer-reviewed
License: CC BY NC ND
Data sources: Crossref
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Statistics in Medicine
Article . 2024
License: CC BY NC ND
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zbMATH Open
Article . 2024
Data sources: zbMATH Open
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Monitoring epidemic processes under political measures

Authors: Nataliya Chukhrova; Oskar Plate; Arne Johannssen;

Monitoring epidemic processes under political measures

Abstract

Statistical modeling of epidemiological curves to capture the course of epidemic processes and to implement a signaling system for detecting significant changes in the process is a challenging task, especially when the process is affected by political measures. As previous monitoring approaches are subject to various problems, we develop a practical and flexible tool that is well suited for monitoring epidemic processes under political measures. This tool enables monitoring across different epochs using a single statistical model that constantly adapts to the underlying process, and therefore allows both retrospective and on‐line monitoring of epidemic processes. It is able to detect essential shifts and to identify anomaly conditions in the epidemic process, and it provides decision‐makers a reliable method for rapidly learning from trends in the epidemiological curves. Moreover, it is a tool to evaluate the effectivity of political measures and to detect the transition from pandemic to endemic. This research is based on a comprehensive COVID‐19 study on infection rates under political measures in line with the reporting of the Robert Koch Institute covering the entire period of the pandemic in Germany.

Country
Denmark
Keywords

Coronavirus pandemic, prescriptive analytics, Models, Statistical, SARS-CoV-2, Politics, Germany/epidemiology, epidemiological curve, infection rate, COVID-19, Statistical, Applications of statistics to biology and medical sciences; meta analysis, Models, Germany, Humans, control charts, Epidemics, coronavirus pandemic, Pandemics, COVID-19/epidemiology

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
1
Average
Average
Average
hybrid