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Journal of Operations Management
Article . 2022 . Peer-reviewed
License: CC BY NC ND
Data sources: Crossref
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Zurich Open Repository and Archive
Article . 2023
License: CC BY NC ND
https://dx.doi.org/10.5167/uzh...
Other literature type . 2023
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A hidden anchor: The influence of service levels on demand forecasts

The influence of service levels on demand forecasts
Authors: Behnam Fahimnia; Meysam Arvan; Tarkan Tan; Enno Siemsen;

A hidden anchor: The influence of service levels on demand forecasts

Abstract

AbstractDemand planning is informed by demand forecasts, service level requirements, replenishment constraints, and revenue projections. “Demand forecasts” differ from “demand plans” in that forecasts only represent the distribution (or the most likely value) of product demand. Motivated by common forecasting practices in industry, our research examines whether forecasters recognize this difference between demand forecasts and demand plans. Based on a lab experiment informed by data from two large FMCG companies, we found that forecasters factor service levels into their demand forecasts, even when they are clearly instructed to predict the most likely demand and incentivized to minimize the forecast error. We establish that this result holds for students and practitioners alike, and show that this behavior is driven by the service level information, and not some other anchor. We use data from a recent industry survey to support the external validity of our key findings.

Countries
Netherlands, Switzerland
Related Organizations
Keywords

anchor, behavior, forecasting, 1803 Management Science and Operations Research, service level, 330 Economics, 10004 Department of Business Administration, sales and operations planning, 1408 Strategy and Management, 2209 Industrial and Manufacturing Engineering, judgment

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    Top 10%
    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
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    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
12
Top 10%
Average
Top 10%
Green
hybrid