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image/svg+xml Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao Closed Access logo, derived from PLoS Open Access logo. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Closed_Access_logo_transparent.svg Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao International Journa...arrow_drop_down
image/svg+xml Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao Closed Access logo, derived from PLoS Open Access logo. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Closed_Access_logo_transparent.svg Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao
International Journal of Climatology
Article . 2021 . Peer-reviewed
License: Wiley Online Library User Agreement
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The seasonal predictability of the wet season over Peninsular Florida

Authors: Carly D. Narotsky; Vasubandhu Misra;

The seasonal predictability of the wet season over Peninsular Florida

Abstract

AbstractIn this study, we examine the seasonal predictability of Peninsular Florida (PF)'s boreal summer season, which is also known as the PF wet season (PFWS) due to the coinciding peak of the robust seasonal cycle of rainfall. The seasonal predictability is examined in the Community Climate System Model, version 4 (CCSM4), which is one of the models of the North American Multi‐Model Ensemble used for routine, operational seasonal forecasts by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center (CPC). An objective definition of the onset and the demise of the PFWS are then implemented, and the predictability of the onset, the demise and the seasonal rainfall anomaly is assessed from the CCSM4 seasonal hindcasts. Our study shows that the 33 years (1983–2015) of the CCSM4 seasonal hindcasts display very poor deterministic and probabilistic skill in predicting the onset and the demise of the PFWS and its seasonal rainfall anomalies for all lead times. It is shown that the seasonal hindcasts display poor skill for both the fixed calendar month and varying seasonal length of the PFWS. In many of these instances, the skills deteriorate with the lead time of the CCSM4 hindcasts, although, in some cases, they bear no relation (e.g., demise date of the PFWS). Our analysis reveals that the interannual variability of the location of the western ridge of the North Atlantic subtropical high is poorly rendered in the seasonal hindcast of CCSM4 with respect to reanalysis. This could explain the origins of some of the potential issues of the CCSM4 seasonal hindcasts with the variability of the PFWS.

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
4
Top 10%
Average
Average
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