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Journal of Applied Econometrics
Article . 2022 . Peer-reviewed
License: Wiley Online Library User Agreement
Data sources: Crossref
https://dx.doi.org/10.48550/ar...
Article . 2020
License: arXiv Non-Exclusive Distribution
Data sources: Datacite
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Recurrent conditional heteroskedasticity

Authors: Nguyen, T. -N.; Tran, M. -N.; Kohn, R.;

Recurrent conditional heteroskedasticity

Abstract

SummaryWe propose a new class of financial volatility models, called the REcurrent Conditional Heteroskedastic (RECH) models, to improve both in‐sample analysis and out‐of‐sample forecasting of the traditional conditional heteroskedastic models. In particular, we incorporate auxiliary deterministic processes, governed by recurrent neural networks, into the conditional variance of the traditional conditional heteroskedastic models, for example, GARCH‐type models, to flexibly capture the dynamics of the underlying volatility. RECH models can detect interesting effects in financial volatility overlooked by the existing conditional heteroskedastic models such as the GARCH, GJR, and EGARCH. The new models often have good out‐of‐sample forecasts while still explaining well the stylized facts of financial volatility by retaining the well‐established features of econometric GARCH‐type models. These properties are illustrated through simulation studies and applications to 31 stock indices and exchange rate data. An user‐friendly software package, together with the examples reported in the paper, is available athttps://github.com/vbayeslab.

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Keywords

FOS: Economics and business, FOS: Computer and information sciences, Statistics - Machine Learning, Econometrics (econ.EM), Applications (stat.AP), Machine Learning (stat.ML), Statistics - Applications, Economics - Econometrics

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
10
Top 10%
Average
Top 10%
Green