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International Journal of Finance & Economics
Article . 2022 . Peer-reviewed
License: CC BY
Data sources: Crossref
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SSRN Electronic Journal
Article . 2019 . Peer-reviewed
Data sources: Crossref
EconStor
Article . 2022
License: CC BY
Data sources: EconStor
EconStor
Research . 2019
Data sources: EconStor
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Connectedness between G10 currencies: Searching for the causal structure

Authors: Timo Bettendorf; Reinhold Heinlein;

Connectedness between G10 currencies: Searching for the causal structure

Abstract

AbstractThis paper presents a new approach for modelling the connectedness between asset returns. We adapt the measure of Diebold and Yilmaz, which is based on the forecast error variance decomposition of a VAR model. However, their connectedness measure hinges on critical assumptions with regard to the variance–covariance matrix of the error terms. We propose to use a more agnostic empirical approach, based on a machine learning algorithm, to identify the contemporaneous structure. In a Monte Carlo study, we compare the different connectedness measures and discuss their advantages and disadvantages. In an empirical application we analyse the connectedness between the G10 currencies. Our results suggest that the US dollar as well as the Norwegian krone are the most independent currencies in our sample. By contrast, the Swiss franc and New Zealand dollar have a negligible impact on other currencies. Moreover, a cluster analysis suggests that the currencies can be divided into three groups, which we classify as: commodity currencies, European currencies and safe haven/carry trade financing currencies.

Related Organizations
Keywords

C51, ddc:330, graph theory, networks, vector autoregression, C32, exchange rates, connectedness, F31

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    influence
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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
4
Top 10%
Average
Average
Green
hybrid