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Journal of Forecasting
Article . 2024 . Peer-reviewed
License: Wiley Online Library User Agreement
Data sources: Crossref
https://dx.doi.org/10.48550/ar...
Article . 2024
License: CC BY NC SA
Data sources: Datacite
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Nonstationary Functional Time Series Forecasting

Authors: Han Lin Shang; Yang Yang;

Nonstationary Functional Time Series Forecasting

Abstract

ABSTRACTWe propose a nonstationary functional time series forecasting method with an application to age‐specific mortality rates observed over the years. The method begins by taking the first‐order differencing and estimates its long‐run covariance function. Through eigendecomposition, we obtain a set of estimated functional principal components and their associated scores for the differenced series. These components allow us to reconstruct the original functional data and compute the residuals. To model the temporal patterns in the residuals, we again perform dynamic functional principal component analysis and extract its estimated principal components and the associated scores for the residuals. As a byproduct, we introduce a geometrically decaying weighted approach to assign higher weights to the most recent data than those from the distant past. Using the Swedish age‐specific mortality rates from 1751 to 2022, we demonstrate that the weighted dynamic functional factor model can produce more accurate point and interval forecasts, particularly for male series exhibiting higher volatility.

Keywords

Methodology (stat.ME), FOS: Computer and information sciences, Statistics - Methodology

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
1
Average
Average
Average
Green