
doi: 10.1002/for.2366
A sample‐based method in Kolsrud (Journal of Forecasting2007;26(3): 171–188) for the construction of a time‐simultaneous prediction band for a univariate time series is extended to produce a variable‐ and time‐simultaneous prediction box for a multivariate time series. A measure of distance based on theL∞‐norm is applied to a learning sample of multivariate time trajectories, which can be mean‐ and/or variance‐nonstationary. Based on the ranking of distances to the centre of the sample, a subsample of the most central multivariate trajectories is selected. A prediction box is constructed by circumscribing the subsample with a hyperrectangle. The fraction of central trajectories selected into the subsample can be calibrated by bootstrap such that the expected coverage of the box equals a prescribed nominal level. The method is related to the concept of data depth, and thence modified to increase coverage. Applications to simulated and empirical data illustrate the method, which is also compared to several other methods in the literature adapted to the multivariate setting. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Economic time series analysis, learning sample, Multivariate analysis and fuzziness, simultaneous prediction bands, data depth, multivariate prediction region, Applications of statistics to economics, coverage error
Economic time series analysis, learning sample, Multivariate analysis and fuzziness, simultaneous prediction bands, data depth, multivariate prediction region, Applications of statistics to economics, coverage error
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