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image/svg+xml Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao Closed Access logo, derived from PLoS Open Access logo. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Closed_Access_logo_transparent.svg Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao Journal of Forecasti...arrow_drop_down
image/svg+xml Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao Closed Access logo, derived from PLoS Open Access logo. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Closed_Access_logo_transparent.svg Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao
Journal of Forecasting
Article . 2014 . Peer-reviewed
License: Wiley Online Library User Agreement
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image/svg+xml Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao Closed Access logo, derived from PLoS Open Access logo. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Closed_Access_logo_transparent.svg Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao
zbMATH Open
Article . 2014
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Forecasting the Term Structure of Interest Rates Using Integrated Nested Laplace Approximations

Forecasting the term structure of interest rates using integrated nested Laplace approximations
Authors: Márcio Laurini; Luiz Koodi Hotta;

Forecasting the Term Structure of Interest Rates Using Integrated Nested Laplace Approximations

Abstract

ABSTRACTThis article discusses the use of Bayesian methods for inference and forecasting in dynamic term structure models through integrated nested Laplace approximations (INLA). This method of analytical approximation allows accurate inferences for latent factors, parameters and forecasts in dynamic models with reduced computational cost. In the estimation of dynamic term structure models it also avoids some simplifications in the inference procedures, such as the inefficient two‐step ordinary least squares (OLS) estimation. The results obtained in the estimation of the dynamic Nelson–Siegel model indicate that this method performs more accurate out‐of‐sample forecasts compared to the methods of two‐stage estimation by OLS and also Bayesian estimation methods using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). These analytical approaches also allow efficient calculation of measures of model selection such as generalized cross‐validation and marginal likelihood, which may be computationally prohibitive in MCMC estimations. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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Keywords

Applications of statistics to actuarial sciences and financial mathematics, term structure, analytical approximation, Bayesian inference, accurate out-of-sample forecasts, Term Structure, Latent Factors, Bayesian Forecasting, Laplace Approximations, latent factors, Interest rates, asset pricing, etc. (stochastic models), jel: jel:C11, jel: jel:G12, jel: jel:G17

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
6
Average
Average
Average
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