
doi: 10.1002/for.2288
ABSTRACTThis article discusses the use of Bayesian methods for inference and forecasting in dynamic term structure models through integrated nested Laplace approximations (INLA). This method of analytical approximation allows accurate inferences for latent factors, parameters and forecasts in dynamic models with reduced computational cost. In the estimation of dynamic term structure models it also avoids some simplifications in the inference procedures, such as the inefficient two‐step ordinary least squares (OLS) estimation. The results obtained in the estimation of the dynamic Nelson–Siegel model indicate that this method performs more accurate out‐of‐sample forecasts compared to the methods of two‐stage estimation by OLS and also Bayesian estimation methods using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). These analytical approaches also allow efficient calculation of measures of model selection such as generalized cross‐validation and marginal likelihood, which may be computationally prohibitive in MCMC estimations. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Applications of statistics to actuarial sciences and financial mathematics, term structure, analytical approximation, Bayesian inference, accurate out-of-sample forecasts, Term Structure, Latent Factors, Bayesian Forecasting, Laplace Approximations, latent factors, Interest rates, asset pricing, etc. (stochastic models), jel: jel:C11, jel: jel:G12, jel: jel:G17
Applications of statistics to actuarial sciences and financial mathematics, term structure, analytical approximation, Bayesian inference, accurate out-of-sample forecasts, Term Structure, Latent Factors, Bayesian Forecasting, Laplace Approximations, latent factors, Interest rates, asset pricing, etc. (stochastic models), jel: jel:C11, jel: jel:G12, jel: jel:G17
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