AbstractIn recent decades, conservation objectives have driven changes to the management of some pine forests in the southeastern United States. Forest thinning and frequent burning of old‐field and plantation pine forests have resulted in an open loblolly–shortleaf pine forest community which resembles the original longleaf pine forest. It is, however, unclear how the structure, composition, and function of the loblolly–shortleaf forest compare to natural longleaf pine forest, and whether it represents an alternative stable state, or simply a transitional state. Understanding the stability of open loblolly–shortleaf pine forest is critical, particularly because several threatened and endangered species are now reliant on it for habitat. The structure and composition of loblolly–shortleaf forest and natural longleaf pine forest were compared using data from permanent forest plots at Fort Benning, Georgia, USA. To assess the stability of the loblolly–shortleaf pine forest and determine whether it is an alternative stable or transitional state, the LANDIS‐II forest landscape simulation model was used to simulate changes in forest type cover under no disturbance, and a frequent‐fire regime at Fort Benning. Under both management scenarios, nearly all loblolly–shortleaf pine forest converted to mixed hardwood forest over the course of the simulation, with most conversion occurring within 60 yr. In contrast, longleaf pine forest cover increased under frequent fire. Several important structural and compositional differences may have contributed to the instability of loblolly–shortleaf pine forest compared to longleaf pine forest. These include, among other factors, higher densities of resprouting hardwood trees and shrubs in loblolly–shortleaf pine forest, including sweetgum, a resilient broadleaf species capable of transforming ecosystem structure. These results highlight the instability of the open loblolly–shortleaf pine forest community and confirm that is a transitional state, destined for mixed hardwood forest in the coming decades under either no disturbance or frequent fire alone. Future forest planning should consider an active transition from the loblolly–shortleaf pine forest in the coming decades if open pine forest is to be conserved for wildlife and conservation objectives.