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Canadian Journal of Statistics
Article . 2026 . Peer-reviewed
License: CC BY
Data sources: Crossref
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https://dx.doi.org/10.48550/ar...
Article . 2023
License: CC BY
Data sources: Datacite
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Nonlinear permuted Granger causality

Authors: Noah D. Gade; Jordan Rodu;

Nonlinear permuted Granger causality

Abstract

Abstract Granger causality is an established, contentious method that seeks causal temporal connections via association and precedence. While not true causal inference, it assists in mapping networks of information flow that may warrant further study. Adaptation to nonlinear data remains challenging, and no single method is widely accepted like the vector autoregressive form for linear Granger causality. The universal approximator ability of artificial neural networks circumvents function specification, but many works pair these tools with in‐sample inferential procedures. These schemes fall short of conducting reliable inference. This article defines permuted Granger causality, a method that lends itself to out‐of‐sample testing, and advocates for its use as a simple fix to correct the imbalance in existing literature. The methodology is simple, shows promise in identification of causal connections in simulated and real‐world data, and vastly improves control for false positive Granger causal connections.

Related Organizations
Keywords

Machine Learning, Methodology (stat.ME), FOS: Computer and information sciences, Methodology, Machine Learning (stat.ML)

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
Green
hybrid