
arXiv: 1808.05527
AbstractDeep Learning (DL) is combined with extreme value theory (EVT) to predict peak loads observed in energy grids. Forecasting energy loads and prices is challenging due to sharp peaks and troughs that arise due to supply and demand fluctuations from intraday system constraints. We propose a deep temporal extreme value model to capture these effects, which predicts the tail behavior of load spikes. Deep long‐short‐term memory architectures with rectified linear unit activation functions capture trends and temporal dependencies, while EVT captures highly volatile load spikes above a prespecified threshold. To illustrate our methodology, we develop forecasting models for hourly price and demand from the PJM interconnection. The goal is to show that DL‐EVT outperforms traditional methods, both in‐ and out‐of‐sample, by capturing the observed nonlinearities in prices and demand spikes. Finally, we conclude with directions for future research.
FOS: Computer and information sciences, Computer Science - Machine Learning, long-short-term memory, rectified linear unit, Statistical Finance (q-fin.ST), extreme value theory, peak prediction, Statistics, energy pricing, deep learning, Quantitative Finance - Statistical Finance, Machine Learning (stat.ML), Machine Learning (cs.LG), FOS: Economics and business, machine learning, Statistics - Machine Learning, smart grid, PJM interconnection, locational marginal price
FOS: Computer and information sciences, Computer Science - Machine Learning, long-short-term memory, rectified linear unit, Statistical Finance (q-fin.ST), extreme value theory, peak prediction, Statistics, energy pricing, deep learning, Quantitative Finance - Statistical Finance, Machine Learning (stat.ML), Machine Learning (cs.LG), FOS: Economics and business, machine learning, Statistics - Machine Learning, smart grid, PJM interconnection, locational marginal price
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