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Geophysical Research Letters
Article . 2017 . Peer-reviewed
License: Wiley Online Library User Agreement
Data sources: Crossref
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Importance of convective parameterization in ENSO predictions

Authors: Jieshun Zhu; Arun Kumar; Wanqiu Wang; Zeng‐Zhen Hu; Bohua Huang; Magdalena A. Balmaseda;

Importance of convective parameterization in ENSO predictions

Abstract

AbstractThis letter explored the influence of atmospheric convection scheme on El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) predictions using a set of hindcast experiments. Specifically, a low‐resolution version of the Climate Forecast System version 2 is used for 12 month hindcasts starting from each April during 1982–2011. The hindcast experiments are repeated with three atmospheric convection schemes. All three hindcasts apply the identical initialization with ocean initial conditions taken from the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts and atmosphere/land initial states from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction. Assessments indicate a substantial sensitivity of the sea surface temperature prediction skill to the different convection schemes, particularly over the eastern tropical Pacific. For the Niño 3.4 index, the anomaly correlation skill can differ by 0.1–0.2 at lead times longer than 2 months. Long‐term simulations are further conducted with the three convection schemes to understand the differences in prediction skill. By conducting heat budget analyses for the mixed‐layer temperature anomalies, it is suggested that the convection scheme having the highest skill simulates stronger and more realistic coupled feedbacks related to ENSO. Particularly, the strength of the Ekman pumping feedback is better represented, which is traced to more realistic simulation of surface wind stress. Our results imply that improving the mean state simulations in coupled (ocean‐atmosphere) general circulation model (e.g., ameliorating the Intertropical Convergence Zone simulation) might further improve our ENSO prediction capability.

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
27
Top 10%
Top 10%
Top 10%
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