Ecological-economic analysis refers to new areas of economic analysis, which has evolved over the past decades in accordance with the requirements of the paradigm of sustainable development. Such studies involve the use of a variety of methodical tools, an important component of which are stochastic factor models. The methodical tools of stochastic factor analysis for today are elaborated, but the emergence of new areas of scientific interests and problems of applied nature caused by the trends of interdisciplinary research, focusing on multidisciplinary in the study of phenomena and processes, requirements for harmonizing the components of the development of subjects on the micro-, meso- or at macrolevels, actualizing the question of studying the possibilities of using traditional methods of correlation-regression analysis in solving the problems of a new modern issue. One such area is the environmental-economic analysis, which involves the study of economic and environmental characteristics in its holistic dependence and conditionality. The purpose of this article is to study the possibilities of using stochastic models of analysis on the example of estimating the interconnections of economic and environmental parameters of the functioning of a regional economic system. Using the correlation-regression analysis method, direct ecological and economic relations (“production – environment”) between economic (gross regional product (GRP)) and environmental characteristics on the example of Chernihiv oblast were conducted. The construction of the correlation fields has proven the feasibility of constructing regression models for three environmental characteristics: emissions of pollutants into the air, current environmental protection costs and waste generation. It is established that the revealed correlation dependencies should be described by analytical forms of linear type for the first two parameters and the parabolic type for the third one. The calculated paired linear regression models allowed to establish that an increase in the GRP by one thousand hryvnias leads to an average increase in the amount of current expenditures on environmental protection by UAH 3,16 (this points to the fact that the expansion of regional scale of production stimulates the financing of expenses for environmental protection measures, contributing to the balancing of its ecological and economic characteristics), and with the increase of the GRP by one billion hryvnias, the amount of pollutant emissions into the atmosphere in the region will decrease on average by 0,59 thousand tons. (this points to the fact that the increase in national production is due to the use of environmentally advanced technologies). The results of the study indicate that the scale of regional production is closely linked to the formation of regional ecological characteristics, and confirm the feasibility of using stochastic models in carrying out the ecological-economic analysis at micro, meso or macro levels in both theoretical scientific research and applied research, in particular when carrying out a strategic environmental assessment.

Статья посвящена исследованию взаимосвязи экономических и экологических параметров функционирования региональной хозяйственной системы на основе использования приемов корреляционно-регрессионного анализа. На примере Черниговской области разработаны стохастические модели прямой связи в системе отношений «производство – окружающая среда», которые позволяют математически описать зависимость экологических характеристик региона от уровня валового регионального продукта.

Стаття присвячена дослідженню взаємозв’язку економічних та екологічних параметрів функціонування регіональної господарської системи на основі використання прийомів кореляційно-регресійного аналізу. На прикладі Чернігівської області розроблено стохастичні моделі прямого зв’язку в системі відносин «виробництво – довкілля», які дозволяють математично описати залежність екологічних характеристик регіону від рівня валового регіонального продукту.