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Arbitrage and the Price of Oil

Authors: Vipin Arora;

Arbitrage and the Price of Oil

Abstract

The model simulated in this paper shows that falling interest rates contribute to rising oil prices. This occurs because oil producers treat oil in the ground as an asset and attempt to arbitrage differences between its rate of return and the interest rate. When calibrated to match observed data over the last two decades, model results indicate that this arbitrage behaviour may have made the largest contribution to the pre-crisis boom in oil prices. Productivity driven growth shocks raise the oil price by about 70 percent, but this rises to 150 percent when falling interest rates are included.

Keywords

jel: jel:Q43, jel: jel:E37, jel: jel:F47

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
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