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Publikationer från KTH
Bachelor thesis . 2025
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Mathematical Modelling of Weak Points in Critical Infrastructure

Authors: Falgén Nikula, Oskar;

Mathematical Modelling of Weak Points in Critical Infrastructure

Abstract

In recent years, cyber attacks targeting critical infrastructure have emerged as a significant threat, with railway systems serving as a prominent example. This thesis aims to mathematically model the railway system to find traffic-related weaknesses and use these to analyze cyber-attacks within the framework of a Stackelberg game. The primary objectives include developing mathematical tools to assess the impact of cyber-attacks on railway operations and creating a simulation model to emulate train traffic and the effects of these attacks. The research employs a combination of theoretical modeling and computational simulations to analyze train traffic under the influence of attacks, as well as game theoretic calculations. Key findings indicate that cyber attacks can substantially disrupt train traffic, often requiring minimal resources from the attacker. The results demonstrate that adversaries can inflict significant damage with relatively low cost and effort by exploiting the traffic dynamics and network topology in conjunction with the fail-safe design of the railway system. This thesis serves to emulate how an attacker could approach modeling an attack on critical infrastructure and highlights the need for ongoing research into effective defense strategies against evolving cyber threats. Under de senaste åren har cyberattacker riktade mot kritisk infrastruktur blivit ett alltmer påtagligt hot, där järnvägssystem utgör ett framträdande exempel. Denna avhandling syftar till att matematiskt modellera järnvägssystemet för att identifiera trafikrelaterade svagheter och använda dessa för att analysera cyberattacker inom ramen av ett Stackelberg-spel. De primära målen inkluderar att utveckla matematiska verktyg för att bedöma påverkan av cyberattacker på järnvägsdrift samt att skapa en simuleringsmodell för att emulera tågtrafik och effekterna därpå av dessa attacker. Arbetet utgörs en kombination av teoretisk modellering och simuleringar för att analysera tågtrafik under påverkan av attacker, såväl som spelteoretiska beräkningar. De huvudsakliga resultaten visar att cyberattacker kan orsaka betydande störningar i tågtrafiken, ofta med minimala resurser från angriparens sida. Resultaten visar att en angripare kan åstadkomma stor skada med relativt små medel genom att utnyttja trafikdynamik och nätverkstopologi i kombination med järnvägssystemets fail-safe- design. Denna avhandling syftar till att efterlikna hur en angripare skulle kunna närma sig modelleringen av en attack mot kritisk infrastruktur och framhäver behovet av fortsatt forskning kring effektiva försvarsstrategier mot cyberhot mot kritiska infratsrukturer.

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Keywords

Masterarbete, Computer and Information Sciences, Cybersecurity, Railway Systems, Master’s Thesis, Järnvägssystem, Stackelberg-spel, Data- och informationsvetenskap, Stackelberg Game, Simulation, Critical infrastructure, Kritisk infrastruktur, Cybersäkerhet

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selected citations
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This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
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