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Моделирование и оценка экономических последствий изменения политики субсидирования на рынке природного газа Украины

Моделирование и оценка экономических последствий изменения политики субсидирования на рынке природного газа Украины

Abstract

In Ukraine natural gas consumption subsidies are widely used as an economic policy measure. According to the IEA estimates in 2012 they amounted to 4,5% of GDP or 16% of Central government budget. And while in general such policy options should address crucial socio-economic issues, in practice they fail to do that. Natural gas subsidies in Ukraine not only create a severe pressure on the public finances but also preferentially allocate money to the high-income households. In particular, households of the richest (X-th decile) receive three times more heat subsidies than the poorest 10% (I-st decile) of public users. In addition this policy distorts market pricing, leads to the inefficient resources allocation, negative environmental effects and energy security decrease.Considering this issue Ukrainian government has initiated a tariff reform in the energy sector. Within the fist stage (2014), residential heat tariffs would be increased by 40%, while average natural gas price for households would rise by 56%. Although this step is of great significance, it generates a lot of practical questions in terms of reform implementation. They include, among others, valuation of the proposed compensation measures efficiency and their influence on the payment discipline, effective distribution of the additionally received funds, and search for the compensation costs recovery sources, etc.To explore these issues the paper adopts a static computable general equilibrium model with heterogeneous households and extended energy sector. Within this modelling tool, apart from government, final consumers are divided into ten groups according to the income level, producers are represented via 40 economic activities, and separate treatment is given to the investors, retirement and social security funds.As modeling results show, while in the long term subsidies elimination leads to the moderate positive macroeconomic effects, in the short term households face sensible real income decrease (0,8%2,2%), which is additionally amplified against the background of existing economic and political predicament.Progressive taxation proved to be the most effective among the compensation costs recovery options studied. Firstly, it does not adversely influence the government budget. Secondly, it induces positive macroeconomic effects. Finally, it serves as a damper for tariff reform regressive consequences and income inequality.In the context of midand long-term economic growth perspectives and Ukrainian energy security, at least moderated tariff increase for natural gas producers should be a foreground issue, especially considering the opportunities of gas production volumes increase.

На базе статической вычислительной модели общего равновесия Украины, с дифференцированными по уровню доходов домохозяйствами, исследованы социально-экономические последствия сокращения объемов субсидирования бытовых потребителей природного газа, пара и горячей воды. Оценена эффективность различных форм компенсационных мероприятий, которые позволяют осуществить приведение тарифов на энергоресурсы к экономически обоснованному уровню социально приемлемым способом.

Keywords

РЕФОРМУВАННЯ СУБСИДіЮВАННЯ, ПРИРОДНИЙ ГАЗ, ТЕПЛОПОСТАЧАННЯ, ПОБУТОВі СПОЖИВАЧі, КОМПЕНСАЦіЙНі ЗАХОДИ, ОБЧИСЛЮВАЛЬНА МОДЕЛЬ ЗАГАЛЬНОї РіВНОВАГИ, РЕФОРМИРОВАНИЕ СУБСИДИРОВАНИЯ, ПРИРОДНЫЙ ГАЗ, ТЕПЛОСНАБЖЕНИЕ, БЫТОВЫЕ ПОТРЕБИТЕЛИ, КОМПЕНСАЦИОННЫЕ МЕРОПРИЯТИЯ, ВЫЧИСЛИТЕЛЬНАЯ МОДЕЛЬ ОБЩЕГО РАВНОВЕСИЯ

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
bronze