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Новые подходы к моделированию возрастной динамики численности детей и молодежи

Новые подходы к моделированию возрастной динамики численности детей и молодежи

Abstract

The authors suggest an approach to the econometric modelling of student cohorts on the basis of the Ridge model of age structure of children and young people developed by them. Constructing such a model allows connecting the demographic dynamics with the changes in the education system which opens up opportunities to model the number of placements at preschool educational institutions, at schools, and in the system of secondary and higher professional education.

Авторы предлагают подход к эконометрическому моделированию контингентов учащихся на основе разработанной ими Гребневой модели возрастной структуры детей и молодежи. Построение модели позволяет увязать демографическую динамику с изменениями в системе образования, что открывает возможность моделировать количество мест в дошкольных учебных заведениях, в школах, системе СПО и ВПО.

Keywords

Гребневая модель возрастной структуры, Ридж модель, когортный анализ, регрессивный тип возрастной структуры населения

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
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