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BMC Medical Research Methodology
Article . 2024 . Peer-reviewed
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Evaluation and comparison of spatial cluster detection methods for improved decision making of disease surveillance: a case study of national dengue surveillance in Thailand

تقييم ومقارنة طرق الكشف عن العنقود المكاني لتحسين عملية صنع القرار في مراقبة الأمراض: دراسة حالة للمراقبة الوطنية لحمى الضنك في تايلاند
Authors: Chawarat Rotejanaprasert; Kawin Chinpong; Andrew Lawson; Peerut Chienwichai; Richard J. Maude;

Evaluation and comparison of spatial cluster detection methods for improved decision making of disease surveillance: a case study of national dengue surveillance in Thailand

Abstract

Abstract Background Dengue is a mosquito-borne disease that causes over 300 million infections worldwide each year with no specific treatment available. Effective surveillance systems are needed for outbreak detection and resource allocation. Spatial cluster detection methods are commonly used, but no general guidance exists on the most appropriate method for dengue surveillance. Therefore, a comprehensive study is needed to assess different methods and provide guidance for dengue surveillance programs. Methods To evaluate the effectiveness of different cluster detection methods for dengue surveillance, we selected and assessed commonly used methods: Getis Ord $${G}_{i}^{*}$$ G i ∗ , Local Moran, SaTScan, and Bayesian modeling. We conducted a simulation study to compare their performance in detecting clusters, and applied all methods to a case study of dengue surveillance in Thailand in 2019 to further evaluate their practical utility. Results In the simulation study, Getis Ord $${G}_{i}^{*}$$ G i ∗ and Local Moran had similar performance, with most misdetections occurring at cluster boundaries and isolated hotspots. SaTScan showed better precision but was less effective at detecting inner outliers, although it performed well on large outbreaks. Bayesian convolution modeling had the highest overall precision in the simulation study. In the dengue case study in Thailand, Getis Ord $${G}_{i}^{*}$$ G i ∗ and Local Moran missed most disease clusters, while SaTScan was mostly able to detect a large cluster. Bayesian disease mapping seemed to be the most effective, with adaptive detection of irregularly shaped disease anomalies. Conclusions Bayesian modeling showed to be the most effective method, demonstrating the best accuracy in adaptively identifying irregularly shaped disease anomalies. In contrast, SaTScan excelled in detecting large outbreaks and regular forms. This study provides empirical evidence for the selection of appropriate tools for dengue surveillance in Thailand, with potential applicability to other disease control programs in similar settings.

Keywords

Medicine (General), Artificial intelligence, Epidemiology, Cluster (spacecraft), Scan statistic, Disease Outbreaks, Dengue, Agricultural and Biological Sciences, Pathology, Spatial, Cluster Analysis, Disease, Disease Outbreaks/prevention & control, Surveillance, Geography, Disease surveillance, Modeling the Dynamics of COVID-19 Pandemic, Statistics, Life Sciences, Thailand, Cluster detection, Programming language, Thailand/epidemiology, Modeling and Simulation, Physical Sciences, Medicine, Digital Epidemiology and Disease Surveillance, Decision Making, Dynamics of Livestock Disease Transmission and Control, Bayesian probability, R5-920, Virology, Health Sciences, FOS: Mathematics, Animals, Humans, Research, Bayes Theorem, Dengue fever, Computer science, Epidemic Detection, Dengue/diagnosis, Agronomy and Crop Science, Mathematics

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
12
Top 10%
Average
Top 10%
Green
gold