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IEEE Transactions on Power Systems
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Blind Kalman Filtering for Short-Term Load Forecasting

Authors: Shalini Sharma; Angshul Majumdar; Victor Elvira; Emilie Chouzenoux;

Blind Kalman Filtering for Short-Term Load Forecasting

Abstract

In this work we address the problem of short-term load forecasting. We propose a generalization of the linear state-space model where the evolution of the state and the observation matrices is unknown. The proposed blind Kalman filter algorithm proceeds via alternating the estimation of these unknown matrices and the inference of the state, within the framework of expectation-maximization. A mini-batch processing strategy is introduced to allow on-the-fly forecasting. The experimental results show that the proposed method outperforms the state-of-the-art techniques by a considerable margin, both on load profile estimation and peak load forecast problems.

Keywords

state-space model, expectation-minimization algorithm, load forecasting, [INFO.INFO-LG] Computer Science [cs]/Machine Learning [cs.LG], Kalman filtering, [SPI.SIGNAL] Engineering Sciences [physics]/Signal and Image processing, [SPI.NRJ] Engineering Sciences [physics]/Electric power

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    popularity
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    Top 1%
    influence
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    impulse
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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
59
Top 1%
Top 10%
Top 1%
Green
bronze