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Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society
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The impact of stochastic modelling on the predictive power of galaxy formation simulations

Authors: Josh Borrow; Matthieu Schaller; Yannick M Bahé; Joop Schaye; Aaron D Ludlow; Sylvia Ploeckinger; Folkert S J Nobels; +1 Authors

The impact of stochastic modelling on the predictive power of galaxy formation simulations

Abstract

ABSTRACT All modern galaxy formation models employ stochastic elements in their sub-grid prescriptions to discretize continuous equations across the time domain. In this paper, we investigate how the stochastic nature of these models, notably star formation, black hole accretion, and their associated feedback, that act on small (< kpc) scales, can back-react on macroscopic galaxy properties (e.g. stellar mass and size) across long (> Gyr) time-scales. We find that the scatter in scaling relations predicted by the EAGLE model implemented in the swift code can be significantly impacted by random variability between re-simulations of the same object, even when galaxies are resolved by tens of thousands of particles. We then illustrate how re-simulations of the same object can be used to better understand the underlying model, by showing how correlations between galaxy stellar mass and black hole mass disappear at the highest black hole masses (MBH > 108 M⊙), indicating that the feedback cycle may be interrupted by external processes. We find that although properties that are collected cumulatively over many objects are relatively robust against random variability (e.g. the median of a scaling relation), the properties of individual galaxies (such as galaxy stellar mass) can vary by up to 25 per cent, even far into the well-resolved regime, driven by bursty physics (black hole feedback), and mergers between galaxies. We suggest that studies of individual objects within cosmological simulations be treated with caution, and that any studies aiming to closely investigate such objects must account for random variability within their results.

Keywords

Methods: numerical, 103003 Astronomie, Galaxies: evolution, software: simulations, FOS: Physical sciences, Software: simulations, Galaxies: formation, 103004 Astrophysik, Astrophysics - Astrophysics of Galaxies, methods: numerical, 103003 Astronomy, 102009 Computer simulation, Astrophysics of Galaxies (astro-ph.GA), galaxies: formation, 103004 Astrophysics, galaxies: evolution, 102009 Computersimulation

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
26
Top 10%
Average
Top 10%
Green
gold