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Journal of the American Statistical Association
Article . 2025 . Peer-reviewed
Data sources: Crossref
https://dx.doi.org/10.48550/ar...
Article . 2024
License: arXiv Non-Exclusive Distribution
Data sources: Datacite
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Nonparametric Test for Rough Volatility

Authors: Chong, Carsten H.; Todorov, Viktor;

Nonparametric Test for Rough Volatility

Abstract

We develop a nonparametric test for deciding whether volatility of an asset follows a standard semimartingale process, with paths of finite quadratic variation, or a rough process with paths of infinite quadratic variation. The test utilizes the fact that volatility is rough if and only if volatility increments are negatively autocorrelated at high frequencies. It is based on the sample autocovariance of increments of spot volatility estimates computed from high-frequency asset return data. By showing a feasible CLT for this statistic under the null hypothesis of semimartingale volatility paths, we construct a test with fixed asymptotic size and an asymptotic power equal to one. The test is derived under very general conditions for the data-generating process. In particular, it is robust to jumps with arbitrary activity and to the presence of market microstructure noise. In an application of the test to SPY high-frequency data, we find evidence for rough volatility.

Keywords

FOS: Economics and business, Statistical Finance (q-fin.ST), Quantitative Finance - Mathematical Finance, Risk Management (q-fin.RM), Econometrics (econ.EM), FOS: Mathematics, Quantitative Finance - Statistical Finance, Mathematics - Statistics Theory, Statistics Theory (math.ST), Mathematical Finance (q-fin.MF), Economics - Econometrics, Quantitative Finance - Risk Management

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    popularity
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    influence
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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
3
Top 10%
Average
Average
Green